Consequences of Climate Change in Armenia

The calculations showed that the average air temperature in Armenia will increase by 1.7^oC,  the precipitation on the territory of Armenia will decrease by about 10 % in 2100.

These consequences can essentially affect the climate-dependent branches of economy.

Global climate change and internal micro-climatic changes on the territory of Armenia might have the following consequences:

• The modelling of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems of Armenia with regard to the climate change for the next 100 years foresees a shift of the landscape-zone borders up the mountain for 100-150m. It is expected that the desert-semi-desert zone area will expand by 33%. The steppe belt will be expanded by 4 % and shifted upwards by 150-200m, which will cause transformation of steppe vegetation communities. The lower border of the forest belt will move upward by 100-200m. The area of sub-Alpian belt will be reduced by 21 %, and that of the Alpian belt - by 22% on the average,
• Increase of climate aridity and intensification of desertification processes can be expected under the projected increase of temperature and precipitation reduction.
• In case of the accepted scenario of climate change, reduction of annual river flow by 15 %, and increase of evaporation from the surface of Lake Sevan by 13-14 % is expected.
• Under the projected change of climatic characteristics, the efficiency of plant cultivation in Armenia can be reduced by 8-14 %. The productivity of cereals will be reduced on average by 9-13 %, vegetable cultures by 7-14 %, potato by 8-10 %, fruits by 5-8 %. The productivity of more heat-resistant grapes can grow by 8-10 %.
• The following consequences in pasture cattle-breeding are projected: reduction of the pasture area as a whole and reduction of the stocks of their production by 4-10 %, in which the areas of the most valuable and productive pastures of sub-Alpian and Alpian belts by 19-22 %, The productivity of mountain hayfields will decrease by 7-10 %. In this respect the number of cattle will reduce by 30 % and production of cattle-breeding by 28-30 % is expected.
• In the case of the expected climate change, an increase of cardiovascular diseases, especially among the most vulnerable part of population is projected. There is a possibility of outbreak of plague and malaria as a result of an expansion of the natural habitat of carriers. According to the forecast there could be an aggravation of epidemic situation for cholera. It is also predicted that an increase of intestinal diseases as a result of longer duration of the period with optimum temperatures for reproduction and development of causative agents in soil and water will take place.