Armenia, as a developing country not included in the Annex I of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, has no obligations for greenhouse gas emission reduction. However, it could undertake voluntary obligations on their limitation with assistance from developed countries within the frames of corresponding mechanisms for implementation of the Convention. Respectfully, emission limitation strategy was developed based on the principle provisions of the Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia for the period up to 2010.
The strategy is based on the optimal combination of the following factors:
In case of the implementation of Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia, the basic components for greenhouse gas emission limitation will be the following:
Two basic scenarios are considered in the Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia: one of them being the development without nuclear energy and the other - the development with nuclear energy. For both scenarios a computer modelling of the power system is carried out - considering the minimization of given expenses, energy-saving and emission of polluting substances to the atmosphere. The program has considered the scenario with a new nuclear power plant with higher safety level more preferable despite a minor excess in the given expenses. The nuclear plant has such advantages, as the diversification of fuel and reduction of dependence on its import, also lower levels of CO2 emission.
The comparative estimation of scenarios has shown, that power system development under the scenario with a nuclear cycle will allow a CO2 emission restriction for 1184 Gg/year in the period starting from 2005 to 2010, and for 869 Gg/year after 2010.
The analysis of change for CO2 emissions (energy sector and industry) in 1990-1995, and its forecast up to 2010 for the basic development scenario (preservation of the tendency) and for two scenarios of the development of energy sector shows, that by preserving the energy production and consumption tendencies at the level of 1990 (basic scenario) the total CO2 emission in 2010 will make 77.3 % from the level of 1990 or 17026 Gg. The implementation of measures, stipulated by the strategy, will enable a ÑÎ2 emission reduction by 2010 up to 54.3 % of the level of 1990, or up to 11960 Gg annually, that is 5066Gg lower than according to the basic scenario, and that will also reduce the emission indicator per unit of energy produced by 32 % (from 61.0 up to 42.2 Gg/PJ).
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