National Strategy for Limitation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Armenia, as a developing country not included in the Annex I of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, has no obligations for greenhouse gas emission reduction. However, it could undertake voluntary obligations on their limitation with assistance from developed countries within the frames of corresponding mechanisms for implementation of the Convention. Respectfully, emission limitation strategy was developed based on the principle provisions of the Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia for the period up to 2010.

The strategy is based on the optimal combination of the following factors:

• ensure conditions for overcoming the economic crisis and subsequent sustainable social-economic development and, according to the feasible development scenario, attain 70 % of the economic level of 1990 by the year 2010;
• satisfy the energy requirements for the projected social economic development and increase the energy consumption efficiency;
• implementation of necessary measures on perfection and structural transformations of energy-systems with cost effectiveness;
• maintain minimal level of greenhouse gas emissions and polluting substances.

In case of the implementation of Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia, the basic components for greenhouse gas emission limitation will be the following:

• increase of resources and modernization of the existing generating capacities of the power stations and application of new highly efficient technologies (with a combined cycle) on thermal power stations. This will allow a considerable reduction of the specific consumption of fuel for the electric power production, and will result in annual saving in fuel after the year 2000 for 120-190 kW of conditional fuels (kW c.f.) and a corresponding reduction of CO₂ emissions;
• increase of the share of its own primary energy resources' production by increasing the share of hydro-power (from 18 % in 1990 up to 26.8 % in 2010), and the use of nuclear power; use of geothermal and wind energy, share of which in the electric power production will make 14.3 % in 2010. With the increase of the own primary power production from 10.9 % in 1990 up to 32-37 % in 2005-2010 a reduction of the share of thermal power stations in the power balance is projected from 82 % in 1990 up to 26.5 % in 2010;
• increase of the share of natural gas and reduction of the share of fuel oil in energy production. As compared to 1990 it is planned to reduce the share of fuel oil from 32% up to 9 % by 2000, and up to 6-7 % by 2005-2010, and increase of the share of natural gas up to 72 %;
• increase of the energy consumption efficiency and energy-saving. The main reserve for energy-saving is in electric-power industry and heat supply sector, as well as in industry and municipal and commercial sectors. The exploitation of these reserves will allow to save 318 kW c.f., and to reduce the CO₂ emissions for 609 Gg annually by 2010. A long term significant increase of the energy consumption efficiency can be achieved by the reduction of water losses in the irrigation systems and the application of gravitational irrigation. That will enable to increase the electric power generation in the hydro-power stations by 100 GWh annually. The energy consumption efficiency can also be achieved by the realization of a stimulating tax and tariff policy.

Two basic scenarios are considered in the Energy Master Plan of the Republic of Armenia: one of them being the development without nuclear energy and the other - the development with nuclear energy. For both scenarios a computer modelling of the power system is carried out - considering the minimization of given expenses, energy-saving and emission of polluting substances to the atmosphere. The program has considered the scenario with a new nuclear power plant with higher safety level more preferable despite a minor excess in the given expenses. The nuclear plant has such advantages, as the diversification of fuel and reduction of dependence on its import, also lower levels of CO₂ emission.

The comparative estimation of scenarios has shown, that power system development under the scenario with a nuclear cycle will allow a CO₂ emission restriction for 1184 Gg/year in the period starting from 2005 to 2010, and for 869 Gg/year after 2010.

The analysis of change for CO₂ emissions (energy sector and industry) in 1990-1995, and its forecast up to 2010 for the basic development scenario (preservation of the tendency) and for two scenarios of the development of energy sector shows, that by preserving the energy production and consumption tendencies at the level of 1990 (basic scenario) the total CO₂ emission in 2010 will make 77.3 % from the level of 1990 or 17026 Gg. The implementation of measures, stipulated by the strategy, will enable a ÑÎ₂ emission reduction by 2010 up to 54.3 % of the level of 1990, or up to 11960 Gg annually, that is 5066Gg lower than according to the basic scenario, and that will also reduce the emission indicator per unit of energy produced by 32 % (from 61.0 up to 42.2 Gg/PJ).