It is predicted that, as a result of global warming, the average
temperature in Armenia will rise by 2-3?C, and rainfall will
decrease by 10-15%, within the next 50-100 years. This further
aridization of the climate is likely to affect vegetation, particularly
those species least tolerant to drought. In addition, the area
covered by alpine and sub-alpine meadows is likely to decline.
In contrast, an expansion of semi-desert habitats is predicted,
along with a new zone of true desert in the Ararat Valley. A
number of rare plants and animals associated with this habitat
will become threatened. Wetland systems will be particularly
affected, and many saline marshes are likely to disappear, along
with their associated species. Therefore predicted global warming,
based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, would have
dramatic and long-term effects on the biodiversity of Armenia,
and is likely to lead to the loss of a number of rare and endemic
species.
A wide range of sectors in Armenia either use or affect biodiversity,
directly or indirectly. These include the agriculture, forestry,
industry, energy, transport, and tourism sectors, and the way
in which each impacts biological resources is explained below.
Agriculture remains the largest sector in Armenia. More than
half the total land is devoted to agricultural or forestry use,
and agricultural use in lowland areas is as high as 80-90% of
the land. Agriculture impacts biodiversity in a number of ways:
· habitat change and destruction of natural ecosystems;
· over-grazing (affecting vegetation composition of pastures);
· land degradation (including compaction of soils and
increased salinity) and reduction in productivity;
· pesticide use and soil pollution;
· soil erosion (and increased risks of landslides);
· pollution of water sources;
· increased spread of disease through livestock populations.
The effects of over-grazing have been discussed above (Section
6.2.1), along with its impacts on alpine and sub-alpine meadows,
forests, and steppes. Another impact of such grazing has been
increased erosion and soil compaction, and increased loss of
organic compounds from soils, particularly on mountain slopes.
In addition, major centralised livestock breeding centres also
affect biodiversity through the effects of their construction,
and through impacts on water resources through over-use by livestock.
The concentration of livestock at limited watering sites, not
only results in competition for water with wildlife, but also
increases the risks of disease transmission, among livestock,
wildlife and humans.
Although privatization of agricultural land in Armenia represents
an important change for farmers, it may have significant adverse
impacts on natural resources. Prior to 1992 over 75% of agricultural
land was used by state or collective farms, however post-privatization
the land has been divided between 130,000 farms, as well as
a number of non-agricultural organisations. Privatization and
land ownership has resulted in new legal and social conditions
relating to land use, and in the absence of effective state
regulation this may result in increased degradation of newly
privatized lands, along with further reductions in productivity
given the lack of environmental guidance in sustainable land
use. Poor land management is likely to affect not just natural
ecosystems but also the productivity of the land and the levels
of pollution from chemical applications. In some areas unregulated
land use may greatly increase the risk of desertification.
The extent of forest use and deforestation in Armenia, as a result of timber extraction,
grazing, industrial use, and fuel requirements during the energy crisis, have already
been described (Section 6.1.1). Loss of forests has a number of effects on biodiversity
and natural ecosystems:
· loss and change of forest habitats;
· increased erosion with loss of tree cover;
· increased silting and eutrophication of water bodies;
· collapse of natural hydrological systems associated with forests;
· gradual forest succession as a result of changed water balance (from primary
forest, to secondary growth, to scrubland and eventually to desert).
Evidence of the degradation of forest habitats, and further knock-on effects, are
relatively widespread in Armenia. Such processes are clearly demonstrated in the Lake
Sevan basin, where forest degradation has resulted in increased soil erosion, which
has in turn contributed to siltation and euthrophication of the lake and surrounding
rivers.
Extensive industrial growth took place in Armenia between
the 1920s and the 1980s, with the development of more than
200 industrial sites, including a number of gigantic industrial
plants, at altitudes up to 2000m. Industrial growth relied
on extensive use of the natural resources of the country,
with little environmental regulation. Industrial development
therefore had significant effects on the ecosystems and biodiversity
of the country, including:
· habitat loss as a result of construction;
· degradation of natural habitats;
· pollution of soils, water and air.
Within Armenia, metallurgical and chemical industries were
particularly important, but represented major polluters of
the environment, releasing dangerous substances into the air
and into water systems. Despite industrial decline, pollution
continues from four remaining plants, and from stored industrial
waste and tailings. In addition, cement works pose a danger
to the environment, through the widespread emission of dust,
which affects natural habitats. The cement works are not currently
operational, however economic revival may lead to the recovery
of this industry and thus increased pollution from this source.
Figures in 1997 indicated that over 130 mining enterprises
existed in Armenia, of which all but four involved open-cast
mining. Mining operations affect an area of 9,700 ha, including
8,275 ha which have undergone direct disturbance, and 1,400
ha covered by tailings or slag. Many mines are situated at
relatively high altitudes (including copper and gold mines
at between 2000 and 2500m), and thus represent a direct threat
to fragile mountain ecosystems, and also affect lowland habitats
downstream from such mines.
Mining affects the biodiversity of the country as a result
of:
· large scale habitat destruction through open-cast
mining;
· impacts of tailings and other deposits on ecosystems;
· pollution of rivers and groundwater.
|
